Looking to past to understand the future

It is early summer, a time of year when every living thing is full of energy. The golden warmth of the sunlight should make us feel optimistic and look to the future with hope and expectation. The world seems to be going through a period of turbulence and change, a period of uncertainty and hostility, with talk of trade wars and tensions, a time when countries appear to want to argue rather than collaborate.

It is important, however, not to get carried away. For all the worries and concerns, the reality is that things are going well in almost every corner of the world. Despite their differences, the leaders of many countries in the world are trying to find ways to work together. China and India have a long history, both as rivals and competitors, but also as cultures that have mutual interests and pasts, and have much in common.

"India and China acted as engines for global economic growth for 1,600 years out of the past 2,000 years," said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi when he met with President Xi Jinping in Wuhan in April in an informal summit notable for the warmth between the two leaders. "Spring is a good time to meet," said President Xi.

The sun is not just useful for solar power; it helps warm the heart, too.

In May last year, the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation was held in Beijing. "Over 2,000 years ago, our ancestors, trekking across vast steppes and deserts, opened the transcontinental passage connecting Asia, Europe and Africa, known today as the Silk Road," said President Xi at the start of the event. One of the main motivations for doing so was to open up trade routes to enable the exchange of goods.

Taking the risk to travel long distances across difficult and dangerous terrain - or to set sail through seas that could quickly become treacherous - required determination. It also demanded rewards. Financial compensation in the form of profits was one motivation, of course. But another was the curiosity of enjoying new experiences, meeting different people, seeing new things and learning from them. The Silk Roads were not just about money. They were also about faith and language, fashion and food, curiosity and the widening of horizons.

Looking to past to understand the future

These experiences allowed our ancestors to learn from each other, but also to borrow, improve and advance new ideas they came into contact with. Trade enables the exchange of technologies, it stimulates scholarship and, as leaders in the past knew very well, it prompts economic growth and prosperity. The magnificent buildings that still stand and date back many centuries in China, India and South Asia, Central Asia, Iran and the Middle East bear witness to the extraordinary sophistication of those who lived before us, who had to contend with challenges and opportunities as we do today. Making society more efficient and more meritocratic was one concern; investing in infrastructure to accelerate and improve domestic connections and encourage greater contact with neighboring peoples, cultures and states was another.

Since the Belt and Road Initiative was first announced in Astana, Kazakhstan, in 2013 by President Xi, we have seen an intensification of ties and links across the spine of Asia. Countries have been investing in their futures, preparing the next generations for the opportunities and challenges of tomorrow. Roads have been and are being built; train lines are being and have been laid down; energy and power plants have been and are being constructed. Spending on infrastructure is a bet for the future - a decision to prepare for more sunshine and hope, rather than expect the worst.

Over the past five years, some $900 billion (778 billion euros; ￡684 billion) has been earmarked for investment in around 900 projects in countries that are part of the Belt and Road Initiative. Like the Silk Roads of the past, there is no geographic, cultural, political or historical criteria that a state or region needs to meet to be part of a broad network that covers around 65 percent of the world's population and a large part of its natural resources.

The funds that have been invested, committed or earmarked for major infrastructure projects - almost always in the form of loans - are designed to intensify and improve links within individual countries and to knit them closer together. Many of the projects require very large amounts of capital investments, since major construction is not cheap, and it is also very challenging to build connections that cross deserts, mountain ranges and oceans.

Looking to past to understand the future

Creating these links is only part of the story. It is not easy to force people together and to persuade them to work side by side. The benefits of cooperation and collaboration need to be obvious, clear and measurable. For the Belt and Road Initiative to have maximum impact in the countries of the Silk Roads, what matters is not shiny new airports, but real social and economic progress, especially for those who have the least in each society. Programs that focus on poverty alleviation and improving healthcare, and that encourage equality, may not sound glamorous. But these are essential elements to get right in the 21st century - the Asian century.

Economic and political collaboration is important. "Trade is an important engine driving growth," President Xi said last year. This is, of course, correct. But so too, as he added, is education. It is only through education that one learns tolerance. Studying other peoples' cultures, beliefs and histories is the way to build respect. It is no coincidence that more than 2,000 years ago, the great historian Sima Qian brought information back to China about other parts of Asia, explaining what was sold in the markets, what the characteristics were of those living beyond the deserts and mountains to the west - and what mutual benefits could be found from opening up new pathways.

Having only been announced in the autumn of 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative is still in its early days. Less than five years have passed for what many have called the "project of the century". China, its neighbors and the world are changing fast. What matters is being able to understand and anticipate why that is the case, and what will happen next. As the great scholar Confucius said, you must study the past if you wish to understand the future. And that starts, of course, with understanding the Silk Roads.

The author is a professor of global history at Oxford University. His book The Silk Roads: A New History of the World is an international best-seller. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.